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Predicting an outcome for Dimensions under IBM

Now that the dispute with SPSS founder Norman Nye has been settled, it looks very likely that the IBM takeover of SPSS will go ahead. Though SPSS spokesperson Heena Jethwa put up a spirited defence in Research magazine (Commitment to MR ‘as strong as ever’, says SPSS) last month, the question remains for the hundreds of users of SPSS MR-specific software worldwide, including Dimensions and the legacy Quancept and Quantum software: just what is IBM going to do with these product lines?

I happen not to share Ms Jethwa’s upbeat assessment that MR customers are likely to be even better off with IBM. The evidence of the recent past, even under the SPSS régime, does not bear this out. SPSS has not had the zeal for MR that was evident when it had its own SPSS MR division and the core Dimensions range of products have not, in my view, kept up with the recent pace of development or innovation from rivals often much smaller than SPSS – but wholly focused on MR and survey-based activities. Make no mistake, there is some excellent technology for MR in the Dimensions range, but the firm’s once mighty grip on the specific and changing needs of research has been allowed to slip.

Whether this is the cause or a symptom is hard to say, but over the past four or five years, SPSS has allowed almost all of its specialists in MR to leach away – most have been snapped up by other MR software firms or research companies. There is no longer a strong force of internal champions for MR within the firm to drive the innovation that is needed.

So what might happen under IBM? IBM has re-invented itself as a software and information management provider, and it went for SPSS for its predictive analytics software to strengthen its range in the business information area of its activities. However, predictive analytics will still only appeal to a minority of actual users, and in relation to that, all the complicated MR stuff it will be acquiring too sits inside a niche within a niche. Even if there were still a strong team of internal champions within SPSS, they would have their work cut out to convince IBM to invest in specialised products with such limited mass market appeal.

Perhaps the best outcome would be for IBM to spin off its MR products. The worrying thing is that, for a firm the size of IBM, simply collecting the rent from existing Dimensions tenants and letting the house fall down over time would have virtually zero impact on its business overall: the MR software market is such a tiny vertical market in global terms. If shareholders vote to accept IBM’s offer on Friday, it would be a good time for the SPSS MR Users’ Group to convene an emergency meeting.

A final goodbye to Quantime

quantime_newsletterI feel sad that IBM has swallowed up SPSS. It feels like the absolute total end of an era.

I used to work for SPSS, and before that for Quantime, which SPSS took over. Both companies had their different qualities: where Quantime was quirky and Bohemian with faded hippy edges, SPSS was organized, with clean-cut suits, but still pleasantly relaxed. SPSS did, in my view, do a good job of ironing out the less attractive wrinkles within Quantime, but with hindsight something intangible was lost, or possibly diluted.  Was it passion?

Quantime, the developer of Quantum and Quancept, was an amazingly successful organization both in terms of cornering the market and making a profit. Looking back, I think at least part of the reason for this was its quirky, slightly disorganized nature. It was the type of place were rules were for bending, where the parties were memorable and where customers who bought beer for the right developers got their favourite bugs fixed a bit faster. SPSS added a slicker system of management and brought new order to anything that was a little unpolished.   I do not have any personal knowledge of IBM, but I assume its culture is less relaxed than SPSS and pretty much at the opposite end of the spectrum from Quantime.

A certain amount of chaos obviously did Quantime no harm – the bottom line was good – although sometimes the quirkiness was hard to live with. That was especially true when we were trying to write its always well-received and much plagiarized newsletter (see an example above) into the wee small hours because of a spur-of-the-moment decision to get one out in a week. However, it is an amazing endorsement to the endeavours of everyone in the old company that, 30 years on, Quantum is still a market leading product in its class.

I really cannot imagine what such a monolith as IBM would want with such niche products as Quantum. Wouldn’t it be great if IBM could sell off SPSS’ market research software interests to a smaller organization that could reinvent a big chunk of Quantime’s passion, and perhaps a small dose of SPSS’ management acumen. Is there anyone out there who fits the bill? If so, please call IBM!

Predictive and precarious

So the news breaks that SPSS has pulled off a marriage with an IT industry behemoth. While many have speculated that SPSS was hoping to get bought by Microsoft, the big surprise is it’s the sober suits at IBM that have carried off the bride. Now, the real reason for the big name change is clear: the due diligence had surely shown there was an unresolved court claim by SPSS founder over the continuing use of the SPSS name. The remedy – dump the name. Quick.

Remember, we went from catchy, resonant names like SPSS, Clementine and Dimensions to whole sentences so little adjusted to memorability that you needed to go on a one-day course to learn how not to confuse PASW Reports for Surveys with PASW Reports for Surveys (Server), or, come to that, PASW Web Reports for Surveys and PASW Reports Professional for Surveys. Just try, for a moment, saying ‘predictive analytics software reports profesional for surveys’. Like me, you’ve probably already forgotten why you even came into the room, let alone started reading this article.

Where was I going..? Oh yes, IBM acquires SPSS for its predictive analytics capability. Research magazine gets an interview with Jack Noonan, CEO of SPSS. He manages to get Predictive Analytics into the first sentence. The problem is, this does not have a whole lot to do with market research. Sure, market research can and should play a role in any predictive strategy. Forecasting is an important function for MR, but it is not its only role. Indeed, as SPSS do rightly remind us, some of the best predictions are to be made by analysing actual transactional data – real, recent behaviour – rather than asking people what they might do. There is still too much research activity expended on asking people what they did, when there is better data to tell you precisely what they actually did.

Unfortunately, what SPSS means by ‘predictive analytics’ has very little to do with market research as it is practised. The press release, published earlier today, focused on the synergies between the SPSS product line and IBM – in business analytics, information mining and predictive models based on very large amounts of business intelligence data for the corporate enterprise client.

Dimensions, by old or new name was not mentioned. However, neither did any of these words appear in the substantial 1700-word press release: ‘survey’, ‘questionnaire’, ‘market research’, ‘question’, ‘answer’. Neither did ‘social research’, not even ‘research’ at all. Even ‘statistics’ only put in a solitary appearance in the “About SPSS” paragraph. It seems ‘data collection’ is the new euphemism for what the MR profession does. The entire announcement had nothing to say to market research – a market which appeared to account for around a fifth of SPSS’s revenues. SPSS were – and still are (just) – a major player in the market research software market.

So what is the future likely to hold for the Dimensions products and the market research customer? They were already becoming marginalised within SPSS, with very little remaining expertise in market research within the company. For IBM, running a portfolio of market research products is likely to be of very little interest. It is likely the software will be unbundled and disinvested – sold on to another developer – or it will be folded more completely into the IBM product family with its MR edges beaten out. There won’t be many MR customers of the Dimensions platform that are revelling in this news, unless they happened to own a whole bunch of SPSS’s NASDAQ stocks.